Modelling the Second-Round Effects of Supply-Side Shocks on Inflation

Since the introduction of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic in 1998, supply-side factors have had a strong direct influence on CPI inflation on several occasions. This paper uses a small-scale dynamic rational expectations model based on an open-economy version of Fuhrer- Moore-type staggered wage setting to quantify the second-round effects of selected supply-side shocks and of shocks to the nominal exchange rate on wages and subsequently on inflation. In order to analyse the desired reaction of the central bank to these shocks, optimal time-consistent policy rules are derived within the presented New-Keynesian framework. Impulse response analyses are then carried out to demonstrate the model's dynamics under various policy rules corresponding to different loss functions of the central bank. The conclusions presented in the paper suggest that the second-round effects of shocks to import prices and the nominal exchange rate on inflation should not be ignored in practical policy-making.monetary policy, optimal policy rules, inflation targeting.

Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the new “g3†structural model of the Czech National Bank and illustrate how it is used for forecasting and policy analysis. As from January 2007 the model was regularly used for shadowing official forecasts, and in July 2008 it became the core model of the CNB. In the paper we highlight the most important and unusual features of the model and discuss tools and procedures that help us in forecasting and assessing the economy with the model. The paper is not meant to provide a full derivation of the model or the complete characteristics of its behavior and should not be regarded as model documentation. Rather, the paper demonstrates how the model is used and how it contributes to policy analysis.DSGE, filtering, forecasting, general equilibrium, monetary policy.

An Economy in Transition and DSGE: What the Czech National Bank’s New Projection Model Needs

Since the introduction of the inflation targeting regime in 1998 the Czech National Bank has made considerable progress in developing formal tools for supporting its Forecasting and Policy Analysis System. This paper documents the advances in the ongoing research aimed at developing a DSGE small open economy model designed to capture some of the most important features of the Czech economy - both the business-cycle regularities and the recent developments associated with the economy's transition and its convergence towards the industrialized European countries. The model in its current form is able to capture trends in relative prices, allow for medium-convergence in expenditure shares, and deal with the undercapitalization and investment inflow issues. Besides the model exhibits real and nominal rigidities that are in line with the recent New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature built fully on first principles. The innovative features of our model include the international currency pricing scheme permitting flexible calibration of import and export price elasticities along with the disconnect of the nominal exchange rate, the policy reaction function with a parameterized forecast horizon, and a generalized capital accumulation equation with imperfect intertemporal substitution of investment..

The Implementation of Scenarios using DSGE Models

The new generation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models seems particularly suited for conducting scenario analysis. These models formalise the behaviour of economic agents on the basis of explicit micro-foundations. As a result, they appear less prone to the Lucas critique than traditional macroeconometric models. DSGE models provide researchers with powerful tools, which allow for the design of a broad range of scenarios and can tackle a large range of issues, while at the same time offering an appealing structural interpretation of the scenario specification and simulation results. This paper provides illustrations of some of the modelling issues that often arise when implementing scenarios using DSGE models in the context of projection exercises or policy analysis. These issues reflect the sensitivity of DSGE model-based analysis to scenario assumptions, which in more traditional models are apparently less critical, such as, for example, scenario event anticipation and duration, as well as treatment of monetary and fiscal policy rules.Business fluctuations, monetary policy, fiscal policy, forecasting and simulation

Comparing fiscal multipliers across models and countries in Europe. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 278, March 2015

This paper employs fifteen dynamic macroeconomic models maintained within the European System of Central Banks to assess the size of fiscal multipliers in European countries. Using a set of common simulations, we consider transitory and permanent shocks to government expenditures and different taxes. We investigate how the baseline multipliers change when monetary policy is transitorily constrained by the zero nominal interest rate bound, certain crisis-related structural features of the economy such as the share of liquidity-constrained households change, and the endogenous fiscal rule that ensures fiscal sustainability in the long run is specified in terms of labour income taxes instead of lump-sum taxes